NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ENCE#130 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entropy#132 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageEntropy pick
47%61%
ENCE · 11 mapsedge Entropy +14%Entropy · 29 maps
AncientENCE ban
25%55%
ENCE · 4 mapsedge Entropy +30%Entropy · 16 maps
CacheEntropy ban
56%47%
ENCE · 5 mapsedge ENCE +9%Entropy · 15 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
50%25%
ENCE · 0 mapsedge ENCE +25%Entropy · 16 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%54%
ENCE · 6 mapsedge ENCE +6%Entropy · 9 maps
InfernoENCE pick
70%55%
ENCE · 6 mapsedge ENCE +15%Entropy · 7 maps
NukeEntropy ban
46%50%
ENCE · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Entropy · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Dust2
2. BanEntropy remove Nuke
3. PickENCE take Inferno
4. PickEntropy take Mirage
5. BanEntropy remove Cache
6. BanENCE remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (60% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
ENCE 34%Entropy 66%
The model gave 66% on Entropy — the map was taken by ENCE.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
ENCE 53%Entropy 47%
The model gave 53% on ENCE — the map was taken by Entropy.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
ENCE 58%Entropy 42%
The model gave 58% on ENCE — the map was taken by Entropy.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 61%
Series resultEntropy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3