Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Illyrians#144 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageIllyrians pick
52%50%
ENCE · 17 mapsnearly even +2%Illyrians · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
54%60%
ENCE · 9 mapsedge Illyrians +6%Illyrians · 1 map
NukeIllyrians ban
43%50%
ENCE · 10 mapsedge Illyrians +7%Illyrians · 0 maps
InfernoENCE pick
62%50%
ENCE · 9 mapsedge ENCE +12%Illyrians · 0 maps
CacheIllyrians ban
50%50%
ENCE · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Illyrians · 0 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
56%29%
ENCE · 5 mapsedge ENCE +27%Illyrians · 3 maps
AncientENCE ban
22%67%
ENCE · 5 mapsedge Illyrians +45%Illyrians · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Ancient
2. BanIllyrians remove Nuke
3. PickENCE take Inferno
4. PickIllyrians take Mirage
5. BanIllyrians remove Cache
6. BanENCE remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (54% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
ENCE 73%Illyrians 27%
The model gave 73% on ENCE — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
ENCE 64%Illyrians 36%
The model gave 64% on ENCE — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 55%
Series resultIllyrians 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2