Elisa Open Finland Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KUUSAMO#177 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoKUUSAMO pick
33%50%
ENCE · 2 mapsedge KUUSAMO +17%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
AncientENCE ban
40%50%
ENCE · 1 mapedge KUUSAMO +10%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
Dust2KUUSAMO ban
60%50%
ENCE · 1 mapedge ENCE +10%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
MirageENCE pick
60%50%
ENCE · 1 mapedge ENCE +10%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
NukeKUUSAMO ban
60%50%
ENCE · 1 mapedge ENCE +10%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
OverpassENCE ban
40%50%
ENCE · 1 mapedge KUUSAMO +10%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Ancient
2. BanKUUSAMO remove Dust2
3. PickENCE take Mirage
4. PickKUUSAMO take Inferno
5. BanKUUSAMO remove Nuke
6. BanENCE remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
ENCE 37%KUUSAMO 63%
The model gave 63% on KUUSAMO — the map was taken by ENCE.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
ENCE 63%KUUSAMO 37%
The model gave 63% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 58%
Series resultENCE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2