ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
L1LFO 10#164 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLFO 10 pick
60%67%
ENCE · 21 mapedge LFO 10 +7%LFO 10 · 2 maps
NukeLFO 10 ban
56%50%
ENCE · 14 mapsedge ENCE +6%LFO 10 · 0 maps
Dust2LFO 10 ban
44%40%
ENCE · 12 mapsnearly even +4%LFO 10 · 1 map
InfernoENCE pick
59%50%
ENCE · 13 mapsedge ENCE +9%LFO 10 · 0 maps
CacheENCE ban
46%50%
ENCE · 9 mapsnearly even -4%LFO 10 · 2 maps
Anubispossible decider
54%50%
ENCE · 9 mapsnearly even +4%LFO 10 · 0 maps
AncientENCE ban
22%50%
ENCE · 5 mapsedge LFO 10 +28%LFO 10 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Ancient
2. BanLFO 10 remove Nuke
3. PickENCE take Inferno
4. PickLFO 10 take Mirage
5. BanLFO 10 remove Dust2
6. BanENCE remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (54% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
ENCE 62%LFO 10 38%
The model gave 62% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
ENCE 40%LFO 10 60%
The model gave 60% on LFO 10 — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 59%
Series resultENCE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2