Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · win 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMai Tai pick
37%39%
ENCE · 15 mapsnearly even -2%Mai Tai · 14 maps
AncientENCE ban
50%40%
ENCE · 8 mapsedge ENCE +10%Mai Tai · 6 maps
NukeENCE pick
53%43%
ENCE · 11 mapsedge ENCE +10%Mai Tai · 3 maps
DefaultENCE ban
50%38%
ENCE · 0 mapsedge ENCE +12%Mai Tai · 12 maps
AnubisMai Tai ban
67%43%
ENCE · 5 mapsedge ENCE +24%Mai Tai · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
63%50%
ENCE · 4 mapsedge ENCE +13%Mai Tai · 4 maps
InfernoMai Tai ban
60%50%
ENCE · 6 mapsedge ENCE +10%Mai Tai · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Default
2. BanMai Tai remove Inferno
3. PickENCE take Nuke
4. PickMai Tai take Mirage
5. BanMai Tai remove Anubis
6. BanENCE remove Ancient
DeciderCache (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
ENCE 63%Mai Tai 37%
The model gave 63% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
ENCE 57%Mai Tai 43%
The model gave 57% on ENCE — the map was taken by Mai Tai.
Anubisprediction correct16:14
ENCE 73%Mai Tai 27%
The model gave 73% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 50%
Series resultENCE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3