ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entropy#132 in the world · win 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageEntropy pick
56%43%
Entropy · 28 mapsedge Entropy +13%Azuolas · 3 maps
AncientAzuolas ban
55%50%
Entropy · 18 mapsedge Entropy +5%Azuolas · 2 maps
Cachepossible decider
47%50%
Entropy · 15 mapsnearly even -3%Azuolas · 0 maps
Dust2Entropy ban
21%50%
Entropy · 15 mapsedge Azuolas +29%Azuolas · 0 maps
AnubisAzuolas ban
53%50%
Entropy · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Azuolas · 0 maps
DefaultAzuolas pick
45%50%
Entropy · 7 mapsedge Azuolas +5%Azuolas · 0 maps
InfernoEntropy ban
45%50%
Entropy · 7 mapsedge Azuolas +5%Azuolas · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEntropy remove Dust2
2. BanAzuolas remove Anubis
3. PickEntropy take Mirage
4. PickAzuolas take Default
5. BanAzuolas remove Ancient
6. BanEntropy remove Inferno
DeciderCache (47% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:13
Entropy 19%Azuolas 81%
The model gave 81% on Azuolas — the map was taken by Entropy.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Entropy 58%Azuolas 42%
The model gave 58% on Entropy — the map was taken by Azuolas.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
Entropy 63%Azuolas 37%
The model gave 63% on Entropy — the map was taken by Entropy.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntropy · 63%
Series resultEntropy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3