ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entropy#159 in the world · win 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Misa#115 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageEntropy pick
55%46%
Entropy · 34 mapsedge Entropy +9%Misa · 20 maps
Dust2Entropy ban
30%49%
Entropy · 16 mapsedge Misa +19%Misa · 31 map
AnubisMisa pick
41%53%
Entropy · 13 mapsedge Misa +12%Misa · 26 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%44%
Entropy · 16 mapsedge Entropy +6%Misa · 23 maps
InfernoEntropy ban
50%56%
Entropy · 8 mapsedge Misa +6%Misa · 14 maps
NukeMisa ban
56%50%
Entropy · 5 mapsedge Entropy +6%Misa · 16 maps
AncientMisa ban
55%43%
Entropy · 16 mapsedge Entropy +12%Misa · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEntropy remove Dust2
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickEntropy take Mirage
4. PickMisa take Anubis
5. BanMisa remove Nuke
6. BanEntropy remove Inferno
DeciderCache (50% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
Entropy 53%Misa 47%
The model gave 53% on Entropy — the map was taken by Entropy.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Entropy 62%Misa 38%
The model gave 62% on Entropy — the map was taken by Entropy.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 56%
Series resultEntropy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2