European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entropy#159 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageEntropy pick
57%57%
Entropy · 31 mapnearly even +0%Vexar · 10 maps
AncientVexar pick
53%52%
Entropy · 13 mapsnearly even +1%Vexar · 17 maps
Dust2Entropy ban
26%50%
Entropy · 15 mapsedge Vexar +24%Vexar · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
44%30%
Entropy · 12 mapsedge Entropy +14%Vexar · 6 maps
DefaultEntropy ban
47%45%
Entropy · 11 mapsnearly even +2%Vexar · 7 maps
CacheVexar ban
50%50%
Entropy · 16 mapsnearly even +0%Vexar · 0 maps
NukeVexar ban
56%36%
Entropy · 5 mapsedge Entropy +20%Vexar · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEntropy remove Dust2
2. BanVexar remove Cache
3. PickEntropy take Mirage
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Nuke
6. BanEntropy remove Default
DeciderAnubis (44% / 30%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:3
Entropy 53%Vexar 47%
The model gave 53% on Entropy — the map was taken by Entropy.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Entropy 48%Vexar 52%
The model gave 52% on Vexar — the map was taken by Entropy.
Model check result
Model favoriteVexar · 52%
Series resultEntropy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2