ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entropy#132 in the world · win 2:0series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.pro#65 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageEntropy pick
61%59%
Entropy · 29 mapsnearly even +2%Virtus.pro · 13 maps
Dust2Virtus.pro pick
25%56%
Entropy · 16 mapsedge Virtus.pro +31%Virtus.pro · 21 map
AncientVirtus.pro ban
50%67%
Entropy · 18 mapsedge Virtus.pro +17%Virtus.pro · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
47%63%
Entropy · 15 mapsedge Virtus.pro +16%Virtus.pro · 4 maps
AnubisVirtus.pro ban
50%50%
Entropy · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Virtus.pro · 8 maps
NukeEntropy ban
43%64%
Entropy · 3 mapsedge Virtus.pro +21%Virtus.pro · 10 maps
OverpassEntropy ban
43%58%
Entropy · 3 mapsedge Virtus.pro +15%Virtus.pro · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEntropy remove Nuke
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Ancient
3. PickEntropy take Mirage
4. PickVirtus.pro take Dust2
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Anubis
6. BanEntropy remove Overpass
DeciderCache (47% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Entropy 55%Virtus.pro 45%
The model gave 55% on Entropy — the map was taken by Entropy.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
Entropy 27%Virtus.pro 73%
The model gave 73% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Entropy.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 72%
Series resultEntropy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2