Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSuba#293 in the world · win 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeNAVI Junior ban
43%38%
eSuba · 3 mapsedge eSuba +5%NAVI Junior · 4 maps
AncienteSuba pick
57%43%
eSuba · 3 mapsedge eSuba +14%NAVI Junior · 3 maps
MirageNAVI Junior pick
60%78%
eSuba · 1 mapedge NAVI Junior +18%NAVI Junior · 5 maps
AnubiseSuba ban
29%50%
eSuba · 3 mapsedge NAVI Junior +21%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
Dust2eSuba ban
29%33%
eSuba · 3 mapsnearly even -4%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
57%33%
eSuba · 3 mapsedge eSuba +24%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BaneSuba remove Anubis
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
3. PickeSuba take Ancient
4. PickNAVI Junior take Mirage
5. BanNAVI Junior remove Nuke
6. BaneSuba remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:9
eSuba 26%NAVI Junior 74%
The model gave 74% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by eSuba.
Infernoprediction correct16:14
eSuba 75%NAVI Junior 25%
The model gave 75% on eSuba — the map was taken by eSuba.
Model check result
Model favoriteNAVI Junior · 62%
Series resulteSuba 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2