AR3NA Epicbet Open Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
eSuba#293 in the world · win 13:9series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 13:9
Spirit HU#138 in the world · loss 9:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit HU ban
40%40%
eSuba · 1 mapnearly even +0%Spirit HU · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
40%60%
eSuba · 1 mapedge Spirit HU +20%Spirit HU · 1 map
MirageeSuba ban
50%40%
eSuba · 0 mapsedge eSuba +10%Spirit HU · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BaneSuba remove Mirage
2. BanSpirit HU remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (40% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
eSuba 31%Spirit HU 69%
The model gave 69% on Spirit HU — the map was taken by eSuba.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit HU · 53%
Series resulteSuba 13:9
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1