Stake Ranked Episode 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#30 in the world · win 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Astralis#17 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
70%67%
Eternal Fire · 23 mapsnearly even +3%Astralis · 17 maps
Cachepossible decider
58%67%
Eternal Fire · 22 mapsedge Astralis +9%Astralis · 14 maps
MirageEternal Fire ban
41%50%
Eternal Fire · 18 mapsedge Astralis +9%Astralis · 8 maps
Dust2Eternal Fire pick
71%45%
Eternal Fire · 17 mapsedge Eternal Fire +26%Astralis · 7 maps
InfernoAstralis ban
53%43%
Eternal Fire · 13 mapsedge Eternal Fire +10%Astralis · 10 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
53%33%
Eternal Fire · 13 mapsedge Eternal Fire +20%Astralis · 2 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
50%50%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Astralis · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
2. BanAstralis remove Anubis
3. PickEternal Fire take Dust2
4. PickAstralis take Ancient
5. BanAstralis remove Inferno
6. BanEternal Fire remove Mirage
DeciderCache (58% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Eternal Fire 77%Astralis 23%
The model gave 77% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Astralis.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
Eternal Fire 51%Astralis 49%
The model gave 51% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Cacheprediction missed13:8
Eternal Fire 41%Astralis 59%
The model gave 59% on Astralis — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 62%
Series resultEternal Fire 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3