European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Atreides#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAtreides pick
50%77%
Eternal Fire · 6 mapsedge Atreides +27%Atreides · 18 maps
AncientEternal Fire pick
58%53%
Eternal Fire · 8 mapsedge Eternal Fire +5%Atreides · 11 maps
Dust2Atreides ban
54%36%
Eternal Fire · 9 mapsedge Eternal Fire +18%Atreides · 7 maps
OverpassAtreides ban
57%43%
Eternal Fire · 3 mapsedge Eternal Fire +14%Atreides · 10 maps
InfernoEternal Fire ban
50%57%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge Atreides +7%Atreides · 10 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
50%56%
Eternal Fire · 4 mapsedge Atreides +6%Atreides · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%55%
Eternal Fire · 1 mapedge Eternal Fire +5%Atreides · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Inferno
2. BanAtreides remove Dust2
3. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
4. PickAtreides take Mirage
5. BanAtreides remove Overpass
6. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Eternal Fire 21%Atreides 79%
The model gave 79% on Atreides — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Eternal Fire 70%Atreides 30%
The model gave 70% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 56%
Series resultEternal Fire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2