European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BRUTE#74 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Eternal Fire pick
50%67%
Eternal Fire · 8 mapsedge BRUTE +17%BRUTE · 14 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%42%
Eternal Fire · 6 mapsedge Eternal Fire +8%BRUTE · 8 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
50%54%
Eternal Fire · 4 mapsnearly even -4%BRUTE · 9 maps
InfernoEternal Fire ban
50%50%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BRUTE · 10 maps
OverpassBRUTE pick
57%73%
Eternal Fire · 3 mapsedge BRUTE +16%BRUTE · 7 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
58%50%
Eternal Fire · 8 mapsedge Eternal Fire +8%BRUTE · 0 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
44%33%
Eternal Fire · 5 mapsedge Eternal Fire +11%BRUTE · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Inferno
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. PickEternal Fire take Dust2
4. PickBRUTE take Overpass
5. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
6. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (50% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Eternal Fire 31%BRUTE 69%
The model gave 69% on BRUTE — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
Eternal Fire 53%BRUTE 47%
The model gave 53% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 62%
Series resultEternal Fire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2