Stake Ranked Episode 4 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ENCE#112 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageENCE ban
45%38%
Eternal Fire · 7 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%ENCE · 17 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
33%53%
Eternal Fire · 2 mapsedge ENCE +20%ENCE · 13 maps
AncientEternal Fire pick
60%45%
Eternal Fire · 6 mapsedge Eternal Fire +15%ENCE · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
56%56%
Eternal Fire · 5 mapsnearly even +0%ENCE · 5 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
50%40%
Eternal Fire · 8 mapsedge Eternal Fire +10%ENCE · 1 map
InfernoENCE pick
43%80%
Eternal Fire · 3 mapsedge ENCE +37%ENCE · 6 maps
AnubisEternal Fire ban
60%60%
Eternal Fire · 1 mapnearly even +0%ENCE · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
2. BanENCE remove Dust2
3. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
4. PickENCE take Inferno
5. BanENCE remove Mirage
6. BanEternal Fire remove Anubis
DeciderCache (56% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
Eternal Fire 14%ENCE 86%
The model gave 86% on ENCE — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Eternal Fire 67%ENCE 33%
The model gave 67% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 58%
Series resultEternal Fire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2