Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
eternal premium#208 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Revise#160 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirageeternal premium pick
46%50%
eternal premium · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Revise · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
64%60%
eternal premium · 7 mapsnearly even +4%Revise · 1 map
NukeRevise ban
50%50%
eternal premium · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Revise · 0 maps
AnubisRevise ban
40%50%
eternal premium · 6 mapsedge Revise +10%Revise · 0 maps
DefaultRevise pick
43%60%
eternal premium · 3 mapsedge Revise +17%Revise · 1 map
Infernoeternal premium ban
50%50%
eternal premium · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Revise · 0 maps
Dust2eternal premium ban
33%50%
eternal premium · 2 mapsedge Revise +17%Revise · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Baneternal premium remove Dust2
2. BanRevise remove Nuke
3. Picketernal premium take Mirage
4. PickRevise take Default
5. BanRevise remove Anubis
6. Baneternal premium remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (64% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
eternal premium 57%Revise 43%
The model gave 57% on eternal premium — the map was taken by eternal premium.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
eternal premium 43%Revise 57%
The model gave 57% on Revise — the map was taken by Revise.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
eternal premium 33%Revise 67%
The model gave 67% on Revise — the map was taken by Revise.
Model check result
Model favoriteeternal premium · 58%
Series resultRevise 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3