WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MMagnumwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEVO Elite ban
40%50%
EVO Elite · 1 mapedge Magnum +10%Magnum · 0 maps
Dust2Magnum ban
50%40%
EVO Elite · 0 mapsedge EVO Elite +10%Magnum · 1 map
InfernoMagnum pick
50%40%
EVO Elite · 0 mapsedge EVO Elite +10%Magnum · 1 map
MirageEVO Elite pick
40%50%
EVO Elite · 1 mapedge Magnum +10%Magnum · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEVO Elite remove Ancient
2. BanMagnum remove Dust2
3. PickEVO Elite take Mirage
4. PickMagnum take Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
EVO Elite 63%Magnum 37%
The model gave 63% on EVO Elite — the map was taken by Magnum.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
EVO Elite 37%Magnum 63%
The model gave 63% on Magnum — the map was taken by Magnum.
Model check result
Model favoriteEVO Elite · 50%
Series resultMagnum 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2