Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
INOX Division#66 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeINOX Division pick
50%69%
ex-1win · 0 mapsedge INOX Division +19%INOX Division · 22 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%60%
ex-1win · 0 mapsedge INOX Division +10%INOX Division · 21 map
Dust2ex-1win ban
50%70%
ex-1win · 0 mapsedge INOX Division +20%INOX Division · 19 maps
Ancientex-1win ban
50%63%
ex-1win · 0 mapsedge INOX Division +13%INOX Division · 15 maps
OverpassINOX Division ban
50%53%
ex-1win · 0 mapsnearly even -3%INOX Division · 11 maps
AnubisINOX Division ban
50%38%
ex-1win · 0 mapsedge ex-1win +12%INOX Division · 9 maps
Defaultex-1win pick
50%50%
ex-1win · 0 mapsnearly even +0%INOX Division · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-1win remove Dust2
2. BanINOX Division remove Anubis
3. Pickex-1win take Default
4. PickINOX Division take Nuke
5. BanINOX Division remove Overpass
6. Banex-1win remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
ex-1win 37%INOX Division 63%
The model gave 63% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Cacheprediction correct13:4
ex-1win 53%INOX Division 47%
The model gave 53% on ex-1win — the map was taken by ex-1win.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
ex-1win 30%INOX Division 70%
The model gave 70% on INOX Division — the map was taken by ex-1win.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 52%
Series resultex-1win 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3