ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LP#107 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientex-Keyd Stars pick
67%59%
ex-Keyd Stars · 5 mapsedge ex-Keyd Stars +8%LP · 13 maps
MirageLP ban
67%38%
ex-Keyd Stars · 2 mapsedge ex-Keyd Stars +29%LP · 9 maps
Dust2LP ban
57%30%
ex-Keyd Stars · 3 mapsedge ex-Keyd Stars +27%LP · 6 maps
Nukeex-Keyd Stars ban
50%46%
ex-Keyd Stars · 0 mapsnearly even +4%LP · 9 maps
Cacheex-Keyd Stars ban
50%67%
ex-Keyd Stars · 0 mapsedge LP +17%LP · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%44%
ex-Keyd Stars · 1 mapedge ex-Keyd Stars +16%LP · 5 maps
DefaultLP pick
50%71%
ex-Keyd Stars · 0 mapsedge LP +21%LP · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Keyd Stars remove Cache
2. BanLP remove Dust2
3. Pickex-Keyd Stars take Ancient
4. PickLP take Default
5. BanLP remove Mirage
6. Banex-Keyd Stars remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (60% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed5:13
ex-Keyd Stars 78%LP 22%
The model gave 78% on ex-Keyd Stars — the map was taken by LP.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
ex-Keyd Stars 62%LP 38%
The model gave 62% on ex-Keyd Stars — the map was taken by LP.
Model check result
Model favoriteLP · 57%
Series resultLP 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2