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ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
ex-Keyd Stars#146 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yawara#156 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientex-Keyd Stars pick
63%56%
ex-Keyd Stars · 4 mapsedge ex-Keyd Stars +7%Yawara · 12 maps
MirageYawara ban
67%38%
ex-Keyd Stars · 2 mapsedge ex-Keyd Stars +29%Yawara · 12 maps
AnubisYawara pick
40%53%
ex-Keyd Stars · 1 mapedge Yawara +13%Yawara · 11 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%50%
ex-Keyd Stars · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Yawara · 10 maps
Cacheex-Keyd Stars ban
50%18%
ex-Keyd Stars · 0 mapsedge ex-Keyd Stars +32%Yawara · 7 maps
Defaultex-Keyd Stars ban
50%71%
ex-Keyd Stars · 0 mapsedge Yawara +21%Yawara · 3 maps
NukeYawara ban
50%57%
ex-Keyd Stars · 0 mapsedge Yawara +7%Yawara · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Keyd Stars remove Cache
2. BanYawara remove Nuke
3. Pickex-Keyd Stars take Ancient
4. PickYawara take Anubis
5. BanYawara remove Mirage
6. Banex-Keyd Stars remove Default
DeciderDust2 (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct7:13
ex-Keyd Stars 34%Yawara 66%
The model gave 66% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
ex-Keyd Stars 53%Yawara 47%
The model gave 53% on ex-Keyd Stars — the map was taken by ex-Keyd Stars.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
ex-Keyd Stars 56%Yawara 44%
The model gave 56% on ex-Keyd Stars — the map was taken by ex-Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Keyd Stars · 51%
Series resultex-Keyd Stars 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3