European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageHonvéd pick
50%50%
ex-MANA · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Honvéd · 6 maps
Dust2ex-MANA pick
50%50%
ex-MANA · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Honvéd · 4 maps
OverpassHonvéd ban
50%29%
ex-MANA · 0 mapsedge ex-MANA +21%Honvéd · 3 maps
AncientHonvéd ban
50%50%
ex-MANA · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Honvéd · 2 maps
Anubisex-MANA ban
50%60%
ex-MANA · 0 mapsedge Honvéd +10%Honvéd · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-MANA remove Anubis
2. BanHonvéd remove Overpass
3. Pickex-MANA take Dust2
4. PickHonvéd take Mirage
5. BanHonvéd remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
ex-MANA 53%Honvéd 47%
The model gave 53% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Mirageprediction missed16:13
ex-MANA 47%Honvéd 53%
The model gave 53% on Honvéd — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 61%
Series resultex-MANA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2