CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-MANA pick
46%50%
ex-MANA · 20 mapsnearly even -4%Misa · 30 maps
MirageMisa ban
64%40%
ex-MANA · 10 mapsedge ex-MANA +24%Misa · 21 map
Nukeex-MANA ban
30%47%
ex-MANA · 6 mapsedge Misa +17%Misa · 15 maps
AnubisMisa pick
38%47%
ex-MANA · 4 mapsedge Misa +9%Misa · 15 maps
Cacheex-MANA ban
50%40%
ex-MANA · 2 mapsedge ex-MANA +10%Misa · 11 maps
Infernopossible decider
38%54%
ex-MANA · 4 mapsedge Misa +16%Misa · 9 maps
AncientMisa ban
47%50%
ex-MANA · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Misa · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-MANA remove Nuke
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. Pickex-MANA take Dust2
4. PickMisa take Anubis
5. BanMisa remove Mirage
6. Banex-MANA remove Cache
DeciderInferno (38% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
ex-MANA 37%Misa 63%
The model gave 63% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
ex-MANA 75%Misa 25%
The model gave 75% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 56%
Series resultMisa 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2