European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
WBT#108 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-MANA pick
67%56%
ex-MANA · 2 mapsedge ex-MANA +11%WBT · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%56%
ex-MANA · 1 mapnearly even +4%WBT · 5 maps
AncientWBT ban
50%43%
ex-MANA · 0 mapsedge ex-MANA +7%WBT · 3 maps
AnubisWBT ban
50%43%
ex-MANA · 0 mapsedge ex-MANA +7%WBT · 3 maps
Nukeex-MANA ban
60%40%
ex-MANA · 1 mapedge ex-MANA +20%WBT · 1 map
Overpassex-MANA ban
50%67%
ex-MANA · 0 mapsedge WBT +17%WBT · 2 maps
DefaultWBT pick
40%50%
ex-MANA · 1 mapedge WBT +10%WBT · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-MANA remove Overpass
2. BanWBT remove Anubis
3. Pickex-MANA take Dust2
4. PickWBT take Default
5. BanWBT remove Ancient
6. Banex-MANA remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
ex-MANA 64%WBT 36%
The model gave 64% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by WBT.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
ex-MANA 54%WBT 46%
The model gave 54% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by WBT.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-MANA · 51%
Series resultWBT 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2