ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ShindeN#77 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientex-MIBR Academy pick
60%60%
ex-MIBR Academy · 1 mapnearly even +0%ShindeN · 6 maps
Infernoex-MIBR Academy ban
50%73%
ex-MIBR Academy · 0 mapsedge ShindeN +23%ShindeN · 7 maps
NukeShindeN ban
50%30%
ex-MIBR Academy · 0 mapsedge ex-MIBR Academy +20%ShindeN · 6 maps
Dust2possible decider
60%57%
ex-MIBR Academy · 1 mapnearly even +3%ShindeN · 3 maps
Mirageex-MIBR Academy ban
50%50%
ex-MIBR Academy · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ShindeN · 4 maps
OverpassShindeN pick
50%71%
ex-MIBR Academy · 0 mapsedge ShindeN +21%ShindeN · 3 maps
CacheShindeN ban
50%33%
ex-MIBR Academy · 0 mapsedge ex-MIBR Academy +17%ShindeN · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-MIBR Academy remove Inferno
2. BanShindeN remove Nuke
3. Pickex-MIBR Academy take Ancient
4. PickShindeN take Overpass
5. BanShindeN remove Cache
6. Banex-MIBR Academy remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (60% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
ex-MIBR Academy 53%ShindeN 47%
The model gave 53% on ex-MIBR Academy — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
ex-MIBR Academy 50%ShindeN 50%
The model gave 50% on ShindeN — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Model check result
Model favoriteShindeN · 73%
Series resultShindeN 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2