ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Grêmio#201 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-ODDIK pick
40%43%
ex-ODDIK · 1 mapnearly even -3%Grêmio · 10 maps
Infernoex-ODDIK ban
50%57%
ex-ODDIK · 0 mapsedge Grêmio +7%Grêmio · 10 maps
CacheGrêmio ban
50%40%
ex-ODDIK · 0 mapsedge ex-ODDIK +10%Grêmio · 6 maps
MirageGrêmio ban
50%30%
ex-ODDIK · 0 mapsedge ex-ODDIK +20%Grêmio · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%44%
ex-ODDIK · 0 mapsedge ex-ODDIK +6%Grêmio · 5 maps
Nukeex-ODDIK ban
50%44%
ex-ODDIK · 0 mapsedge ex-ODDIK +6%Grêmio · 5 maps
DefaultGrêmio pick
50%67%
ex-ODDIK · 0 mapsedge Grêmio +17%Grêmio · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-ODDIK remove Inferno
2. BanGrêmio remove Mirage
3. Pickex-ODDIK take Dust2
4. PickGrêmio take Default
5. BanGrêmio remove Cache
6. Banex-ODDIK remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (50% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
ex-ODDIK 33%Grêmio 67%
The model gave 67% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-ODDIK · 59%
Series resultGrêmio 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1