BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUBY pick
73%57%
ex-RUBY · 7 mapsedge ex-RUBY +16%ASTRAL · 3 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
60%63%
ex-RUBY · 6 mapsnearly even -3%ASTRAL · 4 maps
AncientASTRAL pick
29%50%
ex-RUBY · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +21%ASTRAL · 6 maps
Nukeex-RUBY ban
75%57%
ex-RUBY · 4 mapsedge ex-RUBY +18%ASTRAL · 3 maps
OverpassASTRAL ban
44%50%
ex-RUBY · 5 mapsedge ASTRAL +6%ASTRAL · 0 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
50%25%
ex-RUBY · 0 mapsedge ex-RUBY +25%ASTRAL · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
2. BanASTRAL remove Overpass
3. Pickex-RUBY take Dust2
4. PickASTRAL take Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
6. Banex-RUBY remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
ex-RUBY 26%ASTRAL 74%
The model gave 74% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
ex-RUBY 50%ASTRAL 50%
The model gave 50% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 55%
Series resultASTRAL 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2