WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BAKS#106 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUBY ban
50%64%
ex-RUBY · 12 mapsedge BAKS +14%BAKS · 7 maps
MirageBAKS ban
75%43%
ex-RUBY · 16 mapsedge ex-RUBY +32%BAKS · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
56%63%
ex-RUBY · 12 mapsedge BAKS +7%BAKS · 4 maps
CacheBAKS pick
50%67%
ex-RUBY · 8 mapsedge BAKS +17%BAKS · 8 maps
Nukeex-RUBY pick
50%40%
ex-RUBY · 10 mapsedge ex-RUBY +10%BAKS · 6 maps
DefaultBAKS ban
38%50%
ex-RUBY · 4 mapsedge BAKS +12%BAKS · 0 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
50%50%
ex-RUBY · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BAKS · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
2. BanBAKS remove Mirage
3. Pickex-RUBY take Nuke
4. PickBAKS take Cache
5. BanBAKS remove Default
6. Banex-RUBY remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (56% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct6:13
ex-RUBY 31%BAKS 69%
The model gave 69% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
ex-RUBY 82%BAKS 18%
The model gave 82% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
ex-RUBY 44%BAKS 56%
The model gave 56% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 56%
Series resultBAKS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3