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NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
ex-RUBY#99 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
52%65%
ex-RUBY · 21 mapedge Black Phoenix +13%Black Phoenix · 19 maps
Nukeex-RUBY pick
63%50%
ex-RUBY · 20 mapsedge ex-RUBY +13%Black Phoenix · 12 maps
Miragepossible decider
64%41%
ex-RUBY · 18 mapsedge ex-RUBY +23%Black Phoenix · 13 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
47%50%
ex-RUBY · 15 mapsnearly even -3%Black Phoenix · 0 maps
Cacheex-RUBY ban
56%64%
ex-RUBY · 5 mapsedge Black Phoenix +8%Black Phoenix · 7 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
60%18%
ex-RUBY · 1 mapedge ex-RUBY +42%Black Phoenix · 7 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
50%58%
ex-RUBY · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +8%Black Phoenix · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
3. Pickex-RUBY take Nuke
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
6. Banex-RUBY remove Cache
DeciderMirage (64% / 41%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
ex-RUBY 34%Black Phoenix 66%
The model gave 66% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
ex-RUBY 74%Black Phoenix 26%
The model gave 74% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
ex-RUBY 42%Black Phoenix 58%
The model gave 58% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 58%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3