NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
61%64%
ex-RUBY · 29 mapsnearly even -3%ex-RUSTEC · 7 maps
Mirageex-RUBY ban
59%63%
ex-RUBY · 23 mapsnearly even -4%ex-RUSTEC · 4 maps
Nukeex-RUBY pick
71%33%
ex-RUBY · 24 mapsedge ex-RUBY +38%ex-RUSTEC · 2 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
48%50%
ex-RUBY · 19 mapsnearly even -2%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
Overpassex-RUSTEC ban
59%50%
ex-RUBY · 13 mapsedge ex-RUBY +9%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
Anubisex-RUBY ban
60%40%
ex-RUBY · 1 mapedge ex-RUBY +20%ex-RUSTEC · 1 map
Cachepossible decider
60%60%
ex-RUBY · 1 mapnearly even +0%ex-RUSTEC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Anubis
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
3. Pickex-RUBY take Nuke
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Overpass
6. Banex-RUBY remove Mirage
DeciderCache (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:9
ex-RUBY 47%ex-RUSTEC 53%
The model gave 53% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Nukeprediction correct16:12
ex-RUBY 85%ex-RUSTEC 15%
The model gave 85% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 74%
Series resultex-RUBY 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2