NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
GenOne#95 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
61%67%
ex-RUBY · 29 mapsedge GenOne +6%GenOne · 44 maps
Nukeex-RUBY pick
72%58%
ex-RUBY · 25 mapsedge ex-RUBY +14%GenOne · 27 maps
Ancientpossible decider
48%43%
ex-RUBY · 19 mapsedge ex-RUBY +5%GenOne · 24 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
59%37%
ex-RUBY · 13 mapsedge ex-RUBY +22%GenOne · 15 maps
MirageGenOne ban
59%50%
ex-RUBY · 23 mapsedge ex-RUBY +9%GenOne · 0 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
50%55%
ex-RUBY · 0 mapsedge GenOne +5%GenOne · 16 maps
Anubisex-RUBY ban
60%57%
ex-RUBY · 1 mapnearly even +3%GenOne · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
2. BanGenOne remove Mirage
3. Pickex-RUBY take Nuke
4. PickGenOne take Dust2
5. BanGenOne remove Overpass
6. Banex-RUBY remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (48% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
ex-RUBY 41%GenOne 59%
The model gave 59% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
ex-RUBY 53%GenOne 47%
The model gave 53% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
ex-RUBY 55%GenOne 45%
The model gave 55% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 71%
Series resultGenOne 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3