NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
58%66%
ex-RUBY · 20 mapsedge GenOne +8%GenOne · 43 maps
Ancientpossible decider
47%58%
ex-RUBY · 13 mapsedge GenOne +11%GenOne · 29 maps
Nukeex-RUBY pick
57%57%
ex-RUBY · 19 mapsnearly even +0%GenOne · 19 maps
MirageGenOne ban
65%50%
ex-RUBY · 19 mapsedge ex-RUBY +15%GenOne · 0 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
50%43%
ex-RUBY · 0 mapsedge ex-RUBY +7%GenOne · 17 maps
Anubisex-RUBY ban
60%72%
ex-RUBY · 1 mapedge GenOne +12%GenOne · 14 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
60%36%
ex-RUBY · 6 mapsedge ex-RUBY +24%GenOne · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
2. BanGenOne remove Mirage
3. Pickex-RUBY take Nuke
4. PickGenOne take Dust2
5. BanGenOne remove Overpass
6. Banex-RUBY remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (47% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
ex-RUBY 39%GenOne 61%
The model gave 61% on GenOne — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
ex-RUBY 53%GenOne 47%
The model gave 53% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 54%
Series resultex-RUBY 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2