CCT 2026 Europe Series 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
RUSTEC#124 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2RUSTEC pick
64%42%
ex-RUBY · 21 mapedge ex-RUBY +22%RUSTEC · 8 maps
Nukeex-RUBY pick
81%43%
ex-RUBY · 17 mapsedge ex-RUBY +38%RUSTEC · 3 maps
Mirageex-RUBY ban
41%63%
ex-RUBY · 13 mapsedge RUSTEC +22%RUSTEC · 4 maps
Overpasspossible decider
57%43%
ex-RUBY · 10 mapsedge ex-RUBY +14%RUSTEC · 3 maps
AncientRUSTEC ban
40%50%
ex-RUBY · 11 mapsedge RUSTEC +10%RUSTEC · 0 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
50%71%
ex-RUBY · 0 mapsedge RUSTEC +21%RUSTEC · 3 maps
AnubisRUSTEC ban
60%40%
ex-RUBY · 1 mapedge ex-RUBY +20%RUSTEC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
2. BanRUSTEC remove Anubis
3. Pickex-RUBY take Nuke
4. PickRUSTEC take Dust2
5. BanRUSTEC remove Ancient
6. Banex-RUBY remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (57% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
ex-RUBY 86%RUSTEC 14%
The model gave 86% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by RUSTEC.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
ex-RUBY 69%RUSTEC 31%
The model gave 69% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Overpassprediction correct13:2
ex-RUBY 64%RUSTEC 36%
The model gave 64% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 71%
Series resultex-RUBY 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3