European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Azuolas#184 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
58%40%
ex-RUSTEC · 29 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +18%Azuolas · 1 map
Nukeex-RUSTEC ban
43%75%
ex-RUSTEC · 19 mapsedge Azuolas +32%Azuolas · 4 maps
AnubisAzuolas ban
64%60%
ex-RUSTEC · 21 mapnearly even +4%Azuolas · 1 map
MirageAzuolas pick
60%45%
ex-RUSTEC · 11 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +15%Azuolas · 7 maps
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
44%33%
ex-RUSTEC · 12 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +11%Azuolas · 2 maps
CacheAzuolas ban
47%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Azuolas · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
56%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 5 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +6%Azuolas · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Nuke
2. BanAzuolas remove Cache
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickAzuolas take Mirage
5. BanAzuolas remove Anubis
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
ex-RUSTEC 19%Azuolas 81%
The model gave 81% on Azuolas — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
ex-RUSTEC 70%Azuolas 30%
The model gave 70% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 57%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2