NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
50%33%
ex-RUSTEC · 18 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +17%DragonClaw · 2 maps
Anubispossible decider
53%67%
ex-RUSTEC · 13 mapsedge DragonClaw +14%DragonClaw · 2 maps
NukeDragonClaw ban
44%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 14 mapsedge DragonClaw +6%DragonClaw · 0 maps
MirageDragonClaw pick
73%67%
ex-RUSTEC · 7 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +6%DragonClaw · 2 maps
DefaultDragonClaw ban
60%18%
ex-RUSTEC · 1 mapedge ex-RUSTEC +42%DragonClaw · 7 maps
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
45%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 7 mapsedge DragonClaw +5%DragonClaw · 0 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
50%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 6 mapsnearly even +0%DragonClaw · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
2. BanDragonClaw remove Default
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickDragonClaw take Mirage
5. BanDragonClaw remove Nuke
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (53% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
ex-RUSTEC 87%DragonClaw 13%
The model gave 87% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragonClaw · 66%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1