NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Drama#135 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
61%29%
ex-RUSTEC · 34 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +32%Drama · 3 maps
NukeDrama pick
47%75%
ex-RUSTEC · 26 mapsedge Drama +28%Drama · 4 maps
AnubisDrama ban
67%33%
ex-RUSTEC · 23 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +34%Drama · 2 maps
Mirageex-RUSTEC ban
47%56%
ex-RUSTEC · 15 mapsedge Drama +9%Drama · 5 maps
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
47%33%
ex-RUSTEC · 13 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +14%Drama · 5 maps
CacheDrama ban
47%60%
ex-RUSTEC · 13 mapsedge Drama +13%Drama · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
56%57%
ex-RUSTEC · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Drama · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Mirage
2. BanDrama remove Anubis
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickDrama take Nuke
5. BanDrama remove Cache
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (56% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
ex-RUSTEC 21%Drama 79%
The model gave 79% on Drama — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
ex-RUSTEC 81%Drama 19%
The model gave 81% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by Drama.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
ex-RUSTEC 42%Drama 58%
The model gave 58% on Drama — the map was taken by Drama.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 68%
Series resultDrama 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3