CCT 2026 Europe Series 12 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Illyrians#126 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
48%44%
ex-RUSTEC · 42 mapsnearly even +4%Illyrians · 21 map
MirageIllyrians pick
41%56%
ex-RUSTEC · 18 mapsedge Illyrians +15%Illyrians · 23 maps
Anubisex-RUSTEC pick
71%70%
ex-RUSTEC · 31 mapnearly even +1%Illyrians · 6 maps
NukeIllyrians ban
55%40%
ex-RUSTEC · 36 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +15%Illyrians · 1 map
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
59%47%
ex-RUSTEC · 13 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +12%Illyrians · 13 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
47%71%
ex-RUSTEC · 13 mapsedge Illyrians +24%Illyrians · 13 maps
InfernoIllyrians ban
61%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 14 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +11%Illyrians · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
2. BanIllyrians remove Nuke
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Anubis
4. PickIllyrians take Mirage
5. BanIllyrians remove Inferno
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (48% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed5:13
ex-RUSTEC 55%Illyrians 45%
The model gave 55% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Dust2prediction correct16:14
ex-RUSTEC 51%Illyrians 49%
The model gave 51% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Ancientprediction missed5:13
ex-RUSTEC 62%Illyrians 38%
The model gave 62% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 62%
Series resultIllyrians 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3