CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
50%54%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Just Players · 20 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
50%55%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge Just Players +5%Just Players · 16 maps
Dust2possible decider
40%41%
ex-RUSTEC · 1 mapnearly even -1%Just Players · 13 maps
NukeJust Players ban
50%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Just Players · 10 maps
Overpassex-RUSTEC ban
50%60%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge Just Players +10%Just Players · 6 maps
Defaultex-RUSTEC pick
50%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Just Players · 4 maps
AnubisJust Players ban
50%71%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge Just Players +21%Just Players · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
2. BanJust Players remove Nuke
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Default
4. PickJust Players take Mirage
5. BanJust Players remove Anubis
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (40% / 41%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
ex-RUSTEC 43%Just Players 57%
The model gave 57% on Just Players — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
ex-RUSTEC 52%Just Players 48%
The model gave 52% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Players · 61%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2