CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nexus#159 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
57%40%
ex-RUSTEC · 40 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +17%Nexus · 6 maps
AnubisNexus pick
64%54%
ex-RUSTEC · 24 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +10%Nexus · 9 maps
NukeNexus ban
52%40%
ex-RUSTEC · 29 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +12%Nexus · 1 map
Mirageex-RUSTEC ban
50%63%
ex-RUSTEC · 18 mapsedge Nexus +13%Nexus · 4 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
47%45%
ex-RUSTEC · 13 mapsnearly even +2%Nexus · 7 maps
InfernoNexus ban
44%38%
ex-RUSTEC · 14 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +6%Nexus · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
56%71%
ex-RUSTEC · 5 mapsedge Nexus +15%Nexus · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Mirage
2. BanNexus remove Nuke
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickNexus take Anubis
5. BanNexus remove Inferno
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
DeciderDefault (56% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed14:16
ex-RUSTEC 69%Nexus 31%
The model gave 69% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by Nexus.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
ex-RUSTEC 47%Nexus 53%
The model gave 53% on Nexus — the map was taken by Nexus.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 74%
Series resultNexus 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2