PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Golden Horde#207 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
54%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 44 mapsnearly even +4%The Golden Horde · 2 maps
NukeThe Golden Horde ban
53%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 32 mapsnearly even +3%The Golden Horde · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
66%60%
ex-RUSTEC · 25 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +6%The Golden Horde · 1 map
MirageThe Golden Horde ban
50%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 22 mapsnearly even +0%The Golden Horde · 0 maps
InfernoThe Golden Horde pick
50%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 16 mapsnearly even +0%The Golden Horde · 2 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
47%57%
ex-RUSTEC · 13 mapsedge The Golden Horde +10%The Golden Horde · 3 maps
Defaultex-RUSTEC ban
50%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 6 mapsnearly even +0%The Golden Horde · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
2. BanThe Golden Horde remove Nuke
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickThe Golden Horde take Inferno
5. BanThe Golden Horde remove Mirage
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Default
DeciderAnubis (66% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
ex-RUSTEC 56%The Golden Horde 44%
The model gave 56% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
ex-RUSTEC 53%The Golden Horde 47%
The model gave 53% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 71%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2