Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UNiTY#102 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
64%38%
ex-RUSTEC · 7 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +26%UNiTY · 9 maps
Miragepossible decider
63%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 4 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +13%UNiTY · 8 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
50%46%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsnearly even +4%UNiTY · 9 maps
AnubisUNiTY ban
43%40%
ex-RUSTEC · 3 mapsnearly even +3%UNiTY · 6 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
33%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 5 mapsedge UNiTY +17%UNiTY · 0 maps
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
33%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 2 mapsedge UNiTY +17%UNiTY · 2 maps
CacheUNiTY pick
50%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 2 mapsnearly even +0%UNiTY · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
2. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickUNiTY take Cache
5. BanUNiTY remove Anubis
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
ex-RUSTEC 76%UNiTY 24%
The model gave 76% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
ex-RUSTEC 31%UNiTY 69%
The model gave 69% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
ex-RUSTEC 63%UNiTY 37%
The model gave 63% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteUNiTY · 53%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3