Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fortress#217 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
77%23%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 18 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +54%Fortress · 9 maps
Nukeex-Zero Tenacity ban
63%30%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 12 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +33%Fortress · 6 maps
Dust2Fortress ban
61%40%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +21%Fortress · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
77%33%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +44%Fortress · 5 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
55%44%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +11%Fortress · 5 maps
MirageFortress ban
55%22%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +33%Fortress · 5 maps
DefaultFortress pick
54%67%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 mapsedge Fortress +13%Fortress · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
2. BanFortress remove Mirage
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
4. PickFortress take Default
5. BanFortress remove Dust2
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (77% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:0
ex-Zero Tenacity 93%Fortress 7%
The model gave 93% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
ex-Zero Tenacity 57%Fortress 43%
The model gave 57% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 84%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2