Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
STATE#137 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
73%56%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 22 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +17%STATE · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
70%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 16 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +20%STATE · 6 maps
Dust2STATE ban
64%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 18 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +14%STATE · 0 maps
Infernoex-Zero Tenacity ban
59%43%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 13 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +16%STATE · 3 maps
MirageSTATE ban
54%29%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +25%STATE · 3 maps
DefaultSTATE pick
54%67%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 mapsedge STATE +13%STATE · 2 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
62%40%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +22%STATE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
2. BanSTATE remove Dust2
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
4. PickSTATE take Default
5. BanSTATE remove Mirage
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (70% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
ex-Zero Tenacity 63%STATE 37%
The model gave 63% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
ex-Zero Tenacity 72%STATE 28%
The model gave 72% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by STATE.
Mirageprediction missed2:13
ex-Zero Tenacity 74%STATE 26%
The model gave 74% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by STATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 74%
Series resultSTATE 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3