Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
aimclub#98 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientaimclub ban
40%25%
FAFO · 1 mapedge FAFO +15%aimclub · 4 maps
Anubisaimclub pick
50%71%
FAFO · 2 mapsedge aimclub +21%aimclub · 3 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%38%
FAFO · 0 mapsedge FAFO +12%aimclub · 4 maps
MirageFAFO pick
60%57%
FAFO · 1 mapnearly even +3%aimclub · 3 maps
CacheFAFO ban
50%50%
FAFO · 0 mapsnearly even +0%aimclub · 2 maps
InfernoFAFO ban
50%67%
FAFO · 0 mapsedge aimclub +17%aimclub · 2 maps
Nukeaimclub ban
40%50%
FAFO · 1 mapedge aimclub +10%aimclub · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFAFO remove Inferno
2. Banaimclub remove Nuke
3. PickFAFO take Mirage
4. Pickaimclub take Anubis
5. Banaimclub remove Ancient
6. BanFAFO remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
FAFO 69%aimclub 31%
The model gave 69% on FAFO — the map was taken by aimclub.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
FAFO 50%aimclub 50%
The model gave 50% on aimclub — the map was taken by aimclub.
Model check result
Model favoriteaimclub · 63%
Series resultaimclub 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2