Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#152 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ENCE#112 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFalcons Force pick
64%38%
Falcons Force · 7 mapsedge Falcons Force +26%ENCE · 17 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
25%59%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsedge ENCE +34%ENCE · 13 maps
AncientENCE ban
50%46%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsnearly even +4%ENCE · 9 maps
InfernoFalcons Force ban
50%64%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsedge ENCE +14%ENCE · 7 maps
AnubisENCE pick
40%64%
Falcons Force · 1 mapedge ENCE +24%ENCE · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
75%63%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsedge Falcons Force +12%ENCE · 4 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
29%40%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge ENCE +11%ENCE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
2. BanENCE remove Dust2
3. PickFalcons Force take Mirage
4. PickENCE take Anubis
5. BanENCE remove Ancient
6. BanFalcons Force remove Inferno
DeciderCache (75% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Falcons Force 76%ENCE 24%
The model gave 76% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by ENCE.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
Falcons Force 34%ENCE 66%
The model gave 66% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 53%
Series resultENCE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2