Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#152 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Endless Journey#172 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFalcons Force pick
58%56%
Falcons Force · 8 mapsnearly even +2%Endless Journey · 12 maps
Dust2Falcons Force ban
29%71%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge Endless Journey +42%Endless Journey · 10 maps
InfernoFalcons Force ban
44%40%
Falcons Force · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Endless Journey · 6 maps
NukeEndless Journey pick
25%50%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsedge Endless Journey +25%Endless Journey · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%33%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsedge Falcons Force +17%Endless Journey · 5 maps
AnubisEndless Journey ban
40%38%
Falcons Force · 1 mapnearly even +2%Endless Journey · 4 maps
CacheEndless Journey ban
75%40%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsedge Falcons Force +35%Endless Journey · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
2. BanEndless Journey remove Cache
3. PickFalcons Force take Mirage
4. PickEndless Journey take Nuke
5. BanEndless Journey remove Anubis
6. BanFalcons Force remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Falcons Force 23%Endless Journey 77%
The model gave 77% on Endless Journey — the map was taken by Endless Journey.
Cacheprediction missed4:13
Falcons Force 84%Endless Journey 16%
The model gave 84% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Endless Journey.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 53%
Series resultEndless Journey 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2