Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#152 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fortress#236 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheFalcons Force pick
73%20%
Falcons Force · 7 mapsedge Falcons Force +53%Fortress · 11 maps
MirageFortress ban
50%20%
Falcons Force · 8 mapsedge Falcons Force +30%Fortress · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
58%33%
Falcons Force · 8 mapsedge Falcons Force +25%Fortress · 5 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
36%30%
Falcons Force · 7 mapsedge Falcons Force +6%Fortress · 6 maps
AncientFortress pick
57%36%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge Falcons Force +21%Fortress · 7 maps
AnubisFortress ban
63%40%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsedge Falcons Force +23%Fortress · 6 maps
Dust2Falcons Force ban
33%40%
Falcons Force · 2 mapsedge Fortress +7%Fortress · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
2. BanFortress remove Mirage
3. PickFalcons Force take Cache
4. PickFortress take Ancient
5. BanFortress remove Anubis
6. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (58% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
Falcons Force 69%Fortress 31%
The model gave 69% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Infernoprediction correct13:8
Falcons Force 76%Fortress 24%
The model gave 76% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 62%
Series resultFalcons Force 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2