ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#152 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OLDBOYS PL#196 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientOLDBOYS PL pick
36%50%
Falcons Force · 7 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +14%OLDBOYS PL · 2 maps
Dust2OLDBOYS PL ban
30%33%
Falcons Force · 6 mapsnearly even -3%OLDBOYS PL · 2 maps
MirageFalcons Force pick
60%50%
Falcons Force · 6 mapsedge Falcons Force +10%OLDBOYS PL · 2 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
25%60%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +35%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
InfernoFalcons Force ban
50%60%
Falcons Force · 2 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +10%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
AnubisOLDBOYS PL ban
40%60%
Falcons Force · 1 mapedge OLDBOYS PL +20%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
Falcons Force · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +10%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Inferno
2. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Anubis
3. PickFalcons Force take Mirage
4. PickOLDBOYS PL take Ancient
5. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Dust2
6. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
Falcons Force 16%OLDBOYS PL 84%
The model gave 84% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
Falcons Force 63%OLDBOYS PL 37%
The model gave 63% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 57%
Series resultOLDBOYS PL 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2