Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#152 in the world · win 13:8series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 13:8
SINQU#217 in the world · loss 8:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachepossible decider
69%30%
Falcons Force · 9 mapsedge Falcons Force +39%SINQU · 6 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
31%60%
Falcons Force · 9 mapsedge SINQU +29%SINQU · 6 maps
InfernoSINQU ban
60%50%
Falcons Force · 11 mapsedge Falcons Force +10%SINQU · 2 maps
MirageSINQU ban
50%50%
Falcons Force · 10 mapsnearly even +0%SINQU · 0 maps
AnubisSINQU ban
55%33%
Falcons Force · 7 mapsedge Falcons Force +22%SINQU · 2 maps
AncientFalcons Force ban
57%25%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge Falcons Force +32%SINQU · 4 maps
Dust2Falcons Force ban
33%40%
Falcons Force · 2 mapsedge SINQU +7%SINQU · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
2. BanSINQU remove Mirage
3. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
4. BanSINQU remove Inferno
5. BanFalcons Force remove Ancient
6. BanSINQU remove Anubis
DeciderCache (69% / 30%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
Falcons Force 84%SINQU 16%
The model gave 84% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 58%
Series resultFalcons Force 13:8
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1