Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#144 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
64%50%
Falcons Force · 7 mapsedge Falcons Force +14%TrafficPills · 0 maps
MirageFalcons Force ban
60%40%
Falcons Force · 6 mapsedge Falcons Force +20%TrafficPills · 1 map
CacheFalcons Force pick
67%40%
Falcons Force · 5 mapsedge Falcons Force +27%TrafficPills · 1 map
NukeTrafficPills pick
38%50%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsedge TrafficPills +12%TrafficPills · 0 maps
AncientTrafficPills ban
57%50%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge Falcons Force +7%TrafficPills · 0 maps
AnubisTrafficPills ban
57%50%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge Falcons Force +7%TrafficPills · 0 maps
Dust2Falcons Force ban
40%50%
Falcons Force · 1 mapedge TrafficPills +10%TrafficPills · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
2. BanTrafficPills remove Ancient
3. PickFalcons Force take Cache
4. PickTrafficPills take Nuke
5. BanTrafficPills remove Anubis
6. BanFalcons Force remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (64% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Falcons Force 35%TrafficPills 65%
The model gave 65% on TrafficPills — the map was taken by TrafficPills.
Infernoprediction missed9:13
Falcons Force 66%TrafficPills 34%
The model gave 66% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by TrafficPills.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 63%
Series resultTrafficPills 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2