Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#152 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vexar#141 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
50%50%
Falcons Force · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Vexar · 18 maps
MirageFalcons Force pick
60%54%
Falcons Force · 6 mapsedge Falcons Force +6%Vexar · 9 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
25%38%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsedge Vexar +13%Vexar · 9 maps
InfernoVexar ban
44%60%
Falcons Force · 5 mapsedge Vexar +16%Vexar · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%55%
Falcons Force · 0 mapsedge Vexar +5%Vexar · 7 maps
Dust2Falcons Force ban
33%56%
Falcons Force · 2 mapsedge Vexar +23%Vexar · 5 maps
AnubisVexar ban
40%38%
Falcons Force · 1 mapnearly even +2%Vexar · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
2. BanVexar remove Anubis
3. PickFalcons Force take Mirage
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Inferno
6. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (50% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed22:20
Falcons Force 50%Vexar 50%
The model gave 50% on Vexar — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
Falcons Force 59%Vexar 41%
The model gave 59% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Vexar.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Falcons Force 35%Vexar 65%
The model gave 65% on Vexar — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteVexar · 53%
Series resultVexar 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3